(USNewsMag.com) – According to an anchor on CNBC, Kelly Evans’ analysis of the June 1 jobs data, the report’s unusually substantial rise in the unemployment rate raises the possibility of a forthcoming recession.
On Friday, Evans warned that the unexpected rise was quite concerning. The economy is entering a recession when the unemployment rate increases by half a percentage point from its lowest level. Unemployment went up by three-tenths of a percentage point in the last month.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) statistics show that the nation created 339,000 jobs, above experts’ predictions of 190,000. However, the unemployment rate increased to 3.7 percent, which is a 0.3 percent rise. Evans said a significant rise in the rate of unemployment from one month to the next is often indicative of a downturn.
On Friday, Ben Casselman, an economics writer for the New York Times, reminded his readers of the revelry around the historically low unemployment rate for black Americans. It rose by 0.9 points in May, which isn’t good news. It’s important to keep an eye on these numbers since they are usually the first group to lose their employment during economic downturns.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updated GDP figures for the first quarter of 2023 in May, showing that economic growth in the United States fell to 1.3 percent annually.
However, in May, Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, said that averting a recession is more probable than experiencing one.
CFOs are split on whether the Fed can successfully rein in inflation. Only slightly more than half, 54 percent, have faith in the Fed, but that doesn’t change their assessment that the present economic situation and policy actions will lead to a recession.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, gave a cautionary statement on the economy last Wednesday, telling people to “brace yourself.”
In an effort to reduce persistent inflation, the Fed has taken steps to chill the labor market. Since March 2022, the BLS reports that the rate of unemployment has stayed between 3.4 percent and 3.7 percent.
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